Spain’s socialist prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, has a reputation for judicious risk-taking. In 2018, after orchestrating a vote of no confidence in the incumbent centre-right government, he was appointed prime minister despite the socialists having a mere 84 MPs in a 350-seat parliament. Mr Sánchez was not even a sitting deputy at the time.
This July, progressives both inside and outside Spain must hope that the prime minister’s gambling instincts will pay off once again. Following regional and municipal polls in which the centre-right Partido Popular (PP) had a field day, and the radical right Vox party doubled its share of the vote, Mr Sánchez has surprised Spain by calling a snap general election on 23 July, anticipating one due in December. This is a manoeuvre that Sir Humphrey in Yes Minister might describe as “brave”.
Mr Sánchez has acted swiftly, in part, to concentrate minds in his socialist-led coalition government, which has become increasingly divided and fractious. Amid splits over political tone and a row over a botched reform of sexual consent laws, his deputy prime minister, Yolanda Díaz, has formed a new leftwing alliance, Sumar, to rival Podemos, a junior coalition partner in the government. The two parties now have days to patch up differences and present a united front next month.
Crucially, Mr Sánchez also hopes his gambit will act as a wake-up call to mainstream voters, as the radical right eyes a role in government for the first time since Spain’s return to democracy. Since taking over last year, the PP’s present leader, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, has successfully harvested votes by dragging his party back to the centre. But last year a PP-Vox administration was controversially formed in Castilla y León – the first time Vox had been allowed into regional government. Following Sunday’s polls, the PP will need the party’s support to govern in five regions and numerous municipalities. At a national level, the same logic is all but certain to apply in the case of a PP victory. Mr Feijóo has preached moderation, but has so far failed to rule out post-election deals with Vox.
That means that Spain’s summer election has important ramifications for Europe as a whole. An overwhelming majority of Spaniards have no desire to see Vox anywhere near power. But recent elections in Italy, Sweden and Finland indicate that authoritarian nationalists, intent on whipping up anti-immigrant sentiment, waging culture wars and rolling back rights for women and minorities, are becoming a feature, not a glitch, in western European polities. Ahead of next year’s elections to the European parliament, Italy’s prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, hopes to negotiate a broad alliance between the centre-right and radical right. Ms Meloni, along with Hungary’s populist prime minister, Viktor Orbán, were swiftly in touch to congratulate Vox after Sunday’s results.
Despite its problems, Mr Sánchez’s government has a positive economic story to tell, having weathered the energy crisis and inflationary pressures better than most. Relying on the parliamentary support of a hardline Basque nationalist party with historical links to the terror group ETA has proved deeply unpopular. But a snap election has now turned the spotlight on Vox. In the wake of last weekend’s unexpectedly heavy defeats across Spain, Mr Sánchez has in effect told voters “be careful what you wish for”. That was a gamble. It is very much in Europe’s interests that it pays off.