Second Scottish independence referendum would take place next October, reveals Nicola Sturgeon

That concludes a day which saw Kwasi Kwarteng bring forward his Medium-Term Fiscal Plan to the end of the month and Nicola Sturgeon address delegates at the SNP conference.

The Chancellor last week insisted his new measures, and an accompanying Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast, would be published on November 23 as initially planned, but Mel Stride - who had urged him to publish sooner - confirmed the about-turn earlier today.

Separately, Mr Kwarteng appeared to be overruled by Liz Truss as a plum role at the Treasury was given not to Antonia Romeo, who was thought to be Mr Kwarteng's candidate of choice, but experienced civil service hand James Bowler.

While the past day has been dominated by Ms Sturgeon's comments about "detesting" Conservatives, she focused on positive rhetoric as she made the case for Scottish independence - confirming another independence referendum would be held on October 23 next year if allowed to proceed by the Supreme Court.

My colleague Jack Maidment will be back tomorrow, guiding you through another busy day in politics as MPs return to vote on Liz Truss's reversal to the National Insurance increase.

The Prime Minister spoke to Ukrainian President Zelensky this afternoon.

She strongly condemned Putin's appalling attacks on civilian areas in Kyiv and elsewhere today. The Prime Minister said that these are a sign of Ukrainian success and increasing desperation by Putin in response.

The Prime Minister stressed that the UK stands wholeheartedly behind President Zelensky and Ukraine. Putin's destructive rhetoric and behaviour will not diminish our resolve. The leaders welcomed the deliveries of British military aid which continue to arrive in Ukraine.

The Prime Minister and President Zelensky looked ahead to tomorrow’s virtual meeting of G7 leaders, which President Zelensky will join. They agreed it offers an important opportunity to re-emphasise the unity of opposition to Putin’s despicable campaign.

Drawing her speech to a close as she pays tribute to the late Ian Hamilton, Nicola Sturgeon refers to "the independence generation" and, to a standing ovation, argues leaving the UK is "essential".

"There are two things that we - the independence generation - must never, ever lose faith in. They have sustained us in good times and bad, throughout all the years and decades.

"First, is the fundamental right of the nation of Scotland to self-determination. And the second is what history teaches us - the overwhelming power of democracy to triumph. Friends, the period ahead will see some of the greatest challenges our country has faced in many years.

"But a great opportunity is also in sight. To win and build the better future we know is possible. A better future as an independent nation. Welcoming, diverse, full of love and compassion.

"In tough times, let us inspire with hope in our hearts. Let us lift our eyes. Put our shoulders to the wheel and build a better future for this and generations to come. Friends, with optimism, confidence and determination, we can now finish the job. And we will."

Nicola Sturgeon proposes investing Scotland's remaining oil revenues and using its borrowing powers "not to cut tax for the richest, but to set up an independence investment fund".

The money could finance thousands more affordable homes, a new scheme to decarbonise housing and ease the transition to net zero.

It would combine Scotland's resources with the "powers of independence" to benefit future generations, Ms Sturgeon tells the conference hall.

Nicola Sturgeon confirms Building A New Scotland papers will be published next week.

Ms Sturgeon says the documents will set out how to build a "new, sustainable economy" based on renewable energy while delivering "lower prices and stronger security of supply".

"And on energy, let me give this commitment - unlike our UK counterparts, the Scottish Government will not be issuing licences for fracking."

She insists Scotland will benefit from a "fairer migration policy", the restoration of freedom of movement, rejoining the European Union and reversing "anti-trade union legislation".

Nicola Sturgeon argues independence is "actually the best way" to protect the partnership on which the United Kingdom was founded.

Taking aim at "aggressive unionism" and a "basic lack of respect" from Westminster, she blames the Government for any "tension" and argues Scottish autonomy would allow for a reset of the relationship between different parts of the UK.

She points to the economic concerns about independence but suggests the current crises are at least in part "because we are not independent".

"We have got everything it takes to be a successful independent country. Extraordinary resources, industries and talent in abundance.... Independence is not an untested idea. Independence is normal. For countries of Scotland’s size or even smaller, independence is an outstanding success."

Nicola Sturgeon appeals to her party to "speak less to each other, and more to those outside our ranks" to grow support for Scottish independence.

She decries the supposed "threat" posed by the Government to the NHS, social security and the BBC, before confirming two new fast-track diagnosis centres will open next year.

"Management of the NHS is our responsibility. It is no-one else's. But the fact is our ability to fund it properly depends on decisions taken at Westminster. When they cut our budget, or when they crash our economy, that makes it harder for us to protect the health service."

She claims some Tories want to move "towards an insurance-based alternative" and "destroy our NHS".

Nicola Sturgeon says a second Scottish independence referendum will take place on October 19, 2023 if approved by the Supreme Court.

"And if the court doesn’t decide that way?" she continues. "First, and obviously, we will respect that judgment. We believe in the rule of law.

"And as a party - and a movement - we will, of course, reflect. But fundamentally, it will leave us with a very simple choice. Put our case for independence to the people in an election, or give up on Scottish democracy."

Nicola Sturgeon is onto attacking Labour, accusing them of "aiding and abetting" the Conservatives while pursuing a "hard Brexit".

"They are willing to chuck Scotland under Boris Johnson’s Brexit bus to get the keys to Downing Street," she says.

"For Scotland, there is a fundamental democratic issue here. And it has real-life consequences. Whether it’s Tory or Labour; Labour or Tory, it’s not us who gets to decide."

"For Scotland, the problem is not just which party is in power at Westminster. The problem is Westminster. And to fix that, to make sure we get the governments that the largest number of us vote for - always, not just occasionally - for that, my friends, we need Scotland’s independence. Independence is not a panacea - for any nation - but it is about hope for a better future."

Ms Sturgeon insists she wants to be First Minister "for quite some time yet".

Nicola Sturgeon talks up her party's record on child poverty as she says the Scottish Child Payment is unique in the UK.

She confirms the final instalment of quarterly 'bridging payments', for children who receive free school meals but do not qualify for Child Payment, will be £260, doubling from £130, with a view to helping "put food on the Christmas table".

After mentioning the rent freeze until the end of next March, she asks: "As we have acted to help those in need, what about the UK Government? It is difficult to overstate the calamity of their actions.

"Back in 2014, the Westminster establishment told us it was the UK’s standing in the world; its economic strength; and its stability that made independence impossible. Now they say it’s the UK’s isolation, its weakness and instability - the very conditions they created - that means change can’t happen. As far as Westminster is concerned, it’s heads they win, tails we lose, but this time it will not wash."

"We last gathered together as a party in October 2019," Nicola Sturgeon tells her party. "Back then, the Tories had just elected a new leader. Westminster was in meltdown. A new Prime Minister was driving through a disastrous policy agenda, despite warnings of its dire economic impact.

"And here we are, all over again. Another spin on the Tory misery-go-round."

She goes on to attack Liz Truss's economic policies as "unconscionable" and claims growth will be limited to poverty, the gap between the rich and the poor, and pressure on the NHS and public services.

"Conference, here is what I stand for. What we stand for. Not hoping, against all evidence to the contrary, that wealth will suddenly and magically start trickling down. But instead lifting people up so they can contribute their full potential."

Nicola Sturgeon refers to comments by Suella Braverman, the Home Secretary, who told our Chopper's Politics podcast last week: "I would love to have a front page of The Telegraph with a plane taking off to Rwanda, that’s my dream, it’s my obsession."

Ms Sturgeon adds her dream is "very different", and involves "a world where those fleeing violence and oppression are shown compassion and treated like human beings".

She expresses her solidarity to women in Iran fighting for human rights, girls in Afghanistan who want to go to school, those opposing Vladimir Putin in Russia and the people of Ukraine "fighting for your very existence", to a standing ovation from the hall.

"Let us be clear - these are war crimes for which Vladimir Putin must be held to account," she adds. The contrast between Putin and the people of Ukraine could not be starker. Ukraine - you are an inspiration to the world. And we will always stand with you."

Nicola Sturgeon urges everyone who is eligible to get their booster jab, and says vaccination against Covid is "just as important now" as last winter.

She speaks of the "massive responsibility" of her and her Government amid the cost-of-living crisis, promising to be a "compassionate hand".

"Scotland has got what it takes to be a successful independent country. It has it in abundance. Never let anyone tell us otherwise."

She speaks of the SNP's "duty to champion progressive values and universal rights", accusing the Government in Westminster of being "intent on taking us down a different path".

Nicola Sturgeon says her Government has a "duty to repay all those" who work in oil and gas and "support them into new jobs in green energy".

She resolves to take Aberdeen from the "oil and gas capital of Europe" to the "net zero capital of the world".

Ms Sturgeon confirms 22 projects have been awarded funding of more than £50million as part of the region's £500million Just Transition Fund, including supporting the production of green hydrogen and wave technology development.

"Incredible Scottish ingenuity here in the North-East, supported by the Scottish Government, developing technologies to tackle the global climate emergency. It is exciting, inspiring stuff. And it is a shining example of what a Scottish Government can do when the powers lie in our hands."

"My friends, it is so good to be speaking at conference in person again rather than just virtually," Nicola Sturgeon begins. "Getting to hug friends and colleagues is so, so much better. Our political family, Scotland's biggest party by far, is back together again and that feels great.

"Now the only downside of not being on Zoom is having to trade my slippers for these heels. But I suppose I can't have absolutely everything."

Ms Sturgeon says it is good to be back in Aberdeen, "especially now the SNP is leading this great city", and praises the city's involvement in the transition to net zero.

Nicola Sturgeon is hailed for her "leadership, fortitude and resilience" during the Covid pandemic.

She is welcomed onto the stage to a rapturous standing ovation.

One of the great advantages of being the Foreign Secretary is that you get to look at the UK as others see it, writes James Cleverly, the Foreign Secretary.

As I said in my speech at the Conservative Party conference: "The view of here, as seen from over there, is very, very good."

This won’t be lost on our Prime Minister, having done the job herself. She was our face and voice overseas during turbulent times at home, and she'll know, as I certainly do, that domestic hubbub isn’t at the forefront our friends' and allies' thinking.

In my first month in the job, I have met over a hundred world leaders and their ministers, and despite the narrative of our opponents, or online keyboard warriors, they seem to think Britain is in pretty good shape. They tell me how much they respected and enjoyed working with the Prime Minister in her old role and don’t see that changing in her new one. That’s good because she is uniquely placed to see us through this global storm, and it is global.

James Cleverly: Why Labour's artificial poll lead won't last

Nicola Sturgeon will deliver a speech to close out the SNP conference in just under a quarter of an hour.

It follows a row about her comments on the Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg programme yesterday, in which Ms Sturgeon said:

If the question to me is would I prefer a Labour government over a Tory government... I detest the Tories and everything they stand for, so that's not a difficult question.

Two things, two things. Firstly, being better than the Tories is not a high bar to cross right now. I think we need to see more of a radical alternative from Labour rather than just a pale imitation.

And if you're asking me do I think either a Westminster Tory government or a Westminster Labour government is good enough for Scotland, the answer, for me, is no.

Anyone who promotes self-harm online should face prosecution under new criminal offences, says Sajid Javid, as he spoke powerfully about his brother’s suicide.

In an article for The Telegraph, the former health secretary, called on ministers to introduce a 10-year suicide prevention strategy that would treat suicide with the "same urgency as any other killer", like cancer.

In the wake of the death of Molly Russell, 14, who took her life after being bombarded with self-harm and suicide material online, he said the plan should also set out in detail proposals for a "specific offence that covers those who encourage or assist others to self-harm".

Making his first policy intervention under the new Government, Mr Javid, a former home secretary who helped frame the online safety bill, said the current 1961 laws on suicide made it very difficult to prosecute anyone who encouraged or incited suicide or self-harm online.

Charles Hymas and Ben Riley-Smith have more

Brandon Lewis has expressed his hopes for a "constructive relationship" with the Criminal Bar Association (CBA) after barristers voted to call off their strike this morning.

The Justice Secretary described the decision, which will see industrial action suspended from 6pm, as a "breakthrough".

"My priority in these first few weeks as Lord Chancellor has been to end CBA strike action and reduce delays for victims, and I'm glad that barristers have now agreed to return to work," Mr Lewis said.

"This breakthrough is a result of coming together and restarting what I hope to be a constructive relationship as we work to drive down the backlog and ensure victims see justice done sooner."

The number of dependents that foreign students can bring into the UK could be capped under plans being considered by ministers to tackle "bad migration", Charles Hymas reports.

Nadhim Zahawi, the Cabinet Office minister, has joined with Suella Braverman, the Home Secretary, in expressing concern at the number of dependents - as many as six - that foreign students were bringing into the country.

An analysis of Home Office data shows the numbers of dependents of foreign students granted visas has increased five-fold in just three years, from 13,664 in 2019 to 81,089 in the year ending June 2022.

Ministers are understood to be looking at ways to tighten the rules, which allow students to bring in a spouse and any dependent children, as long as they can support themselves.

Full story: Zahawi urges crackdown 'on abuse of a system'

To have a child is to be vulnerable; to accept that your heart will wander around outside your body for the rest of your life. It is to confront the impossible truth that you cannot shield them from the world, writes Nikki da Costa.

Imagine now that child comes to you, distressed by their sex, feeling they do not conform, they no longer want to be a boy or a girl. You do not know what to do. You turn to the internet and there you find Mermaids, "helping gender-diverse kids…since 1995".

A charity invited to parties at 10 Downing Street and to give evidence to MPs, lauded by celebrities such as Emma Watson, receiving National Lottery Funding and major corporate sponsorship. All have given their stamp of approval, helping take it from a charity receiving £127,000 in 2017 to £1.85million in 2021.  

This charity tells you that if you do not affirm your child as trans then they may commit suicide. Mermaids CEO Susie Green talks about taking her child to the US for puberty blockers aged 12, oestrogen aged 13, and to Thailand for surgery on their sixteenth birthday. While one has to respect this as her experience it is not necessarily a template for everyone else.

Nikki da Costa: The charity scandal that is a warning for us all

A Scottish Tory MP has written to Nicola Sturgeon to invite her to his constituency after her comments about "detesting" the Conservatives.

John Lamont, the MP for Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, accused the First Minister of "dangerous" and "incendiary" language that "fuels hatred".

"A reckless statement like that lets down the people in my constituency and across Scotland who didn't vote for the SNP," he wrote.

"It is an insult to the 25,747 people in my constituency who voted Conservative at the most recent General Election... You are welcome to visit my constituency anytime to explain to local people why you detest many of us."

Liz Truss forced the Department for Education into an embarrassing climbdown over China policy when it issued a surprise statement backing the controversial Confucius Institutes.

A Departmental source had told The Telegraph that China is a “leading member of the international community” when the Department defended the Chinese centres in universities.

In a furious backlash, Conservative MPs told Liz Truss to “put her money where her mouth is” on China and overrule the Department.  

The Prime Minister on Sunday ordered the Education Secretary Kit Malthouse to revise his Department’s language on China following the backlash. Downing Street and the Foreign Office required the Department to issue a revised statement, The Telegraph was told.

Louisa Clarence-Smith has this exclusive report

I am delighted to be returning to HM Treasury.

Having spent over 20 years at the Department, I know first-hand the excellence of its people. I plan to bring my wider experience back to the Department to help navigate the opportunities and challenges of the global economy that lie ahead.

I look forward to working with the Chancellor as part of a strong team alongside the proven experience and talent of Beth Russell and Cat Little.

Much of Liz Truss's successful Conservative leadership campaign was based on the idea of a "failing" Treasury orthodoxy and the need for the economy to change course.

Ms Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng's mini-Budget last month set out the most radical tax-cutting package in decades, but a backbench Tory rebellion forced them to scrap plans to abolish the top 45p rate of income tax.

Now, Mr Kwarteng seems to have been unsuccessful in installing Antonia Romeo - currently the permanent secretary at the Ministry of Justice - as the top official at the Treasury.

Instead, the position has gone to James Bowler, the Cabinet Office confirmed in the past few minutes. In his statement, Mr Kwarteng refers to Mr Bowler having "joined the civil service over 20 years ago" and his "enormous  experience delivering across a range of Government departments".

Cat Little and Beth Russell, the Treasury's new Second Permanent Secretaries, were welcomed for bringing "experience and continuity". While Ms Truss and Mr Kwarteng have insisted they will press ahead with their package of radical reform, the cast of characters at the Treasury will nonetheless be a more familiar one than some initially thought.

Liz Truss has overruled her Chancellor to block his plan to bring in an outsider to run the Treasury, writes Daniel Martin, our Deputy Political Editor.

James Bowler, a former Treasury civil servant, is set to be announced today as permanent secretary at the department.

Kwasi Kwarteng had wanted to bring in Antonia Romeo, the permanent secretary at the Ministry of Justice, as it was felt she would have shaken up the "Treasury orthodoxy" that the Prime Minister has railed about.

But it appears Ms Truss has had cold feet and instead chose a civil servant whose roots in the Treasury are so deep that he will be seen as the continuity candidate. 

At present, Mr Bowler is permanent secretary at the Department of International Trade. 

Carrie Johnson has shared a series of new black and white photographs relaxing with her two children, offering a glimpse into her life as a mother, writes Chanel Zagon.

The unseen four pictures show Mrs Johnson sitting with her 10-month-old baby daughter Romy and two-year-old son Wilfred on a blanket in a meadow.

Mrs Johnson posted the playful photos on Instagram, writing: "It's crazy just how fast your babies grow. These pictures were taken by my lovely friend @fultonphoto8raphy nearly six months ago.

"Wilf is now looking so grown up and Romy is racing around too, hot on his heels. It goes so fast. Please slow down!"

See the photographs here

Some of Kwasi Kwarteng's further fiscal measures will be announced before the end of the month, Downing Street suggested this lunchtime.

"Obviously you'll have noticed that we brought forward the date for the medium-term fiscal plan to October 31," the Prime Minister's official spokesman said.

"So we are looking at the choreography of the other growth (measures), so we'll try and update you on that as soon as possible. But, yes, there will be some further detail on those growth plans in advance of the the 31st."

There are "no plans" to make cannabis a Class A drug, Downing Street said this lunchtime.

Reports over the weekend claimed Suella Braverman, the Home Secretary, was considering upgrading cannabis to Class A because she was worried it could act as a "gateway drug" to more harmful substances.

The Prime Minister's official spokesman told reporters: "There’s no plans to change the laws around cannabis. Our priority is on cracking down on illegal drugs and the crime they drive."

Liz Truss does not think Michael Gove is a "sadist", No 10 has said.

The Prime Minister's official spokesman was asked about the front page of yesterday's Mail on Sunday, which branded Gove "sadistic" - words attributed to "an ally of the Prime Minister".

Pressed on whether Ms Truss shared that view, the spokesman said: "I think... er, no, but beyond that I’m not going to get into commenting on source briefings."

Britain has sanctioned Iran's so-called 'Morality Police' and senior political and security figures in that country, the Foreign Office confirmed.

The Morality Police was sanctioned in its entirety after the death of Mahsa Amini, who died following her arrest by the group - which seeks to control what women wear and how they behave publicly. Ms Amini's death has sparked protests across Iran.

Also sanctioned today were Gholamreza Soleimani, the head of the Basij force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps which is responsible for internal security, and Hossein Ashtari, the commander-in-chief of the Iranian police.

James Cleverly, the Foreign Secretary, said: "The UK stands with the people of Iran who are bravely calling for accountability from their government and for their fundamental human rights to be respected.

"These sanctions send a clear message to the Iranian authorities – we will hold you to account for your repression of women and girls and for the shocking violence you have inflicted on your own people."

People who voted Labour in 2019 prefer Sir Keir Starmer to Andy Burnham, new polling suggests.

Out of those surveyed by the New Statesman at the end of last month, 62 per cent had a positive view of the current party leader, with 14 per cent having an unfavourable view.

Forty-six per cent had a favourable view of Andy Burnham and Jeremy Corbyn. Twenty-nine per cent were unfavourable towards Mr Corbyn, Sir Keir's predecessor, and seven per cent towards Mr Burnham, who is currently the Greater Manchester Mayor.

Mr Burnham has increasingly broken with the Labour party line in the last couple of months, urging Sir Keir to adopt proportional representation - something the leadership said was not a priority - and defying him by saying he would not only join a picket line but would seemingly back the nationalisation of essential utility firms.

More than half of the Just Stop Oil protesters on The Mall have now been removed by police, the PA news agency reports.

Eleven activists now remain, some of whom are glued together or to the road.

The Prime Minister says:

This country has come a long way in how we talk about mental health, something we can all be proud of.

I'm committed to ensuring people get the support they need to thrive, expanding mental health support for children and people getting back into work. 

Just Stop Oil protesters have blocked off The Mall in front of Buckingham Palace in London, writes Gareth Davies.

Around 30 activists started sitting on the road at 8.45am wearing orange high-visibility jackets and holding Just Stop Oil banners.

Several police officers and police liaison attended the scene and one police officer asked: "How long are you going to be here?" A protester replied: "Until we get a new Government."

A police liaison officer then reportedly said: "Let me know if I can I do anything for you." The protester replied: "Not unless you have a letter from Liz Truss."

See more pictures of the protests here

This from the new international trade minister:

Greg Hands, who was last night appointed as the new international trade minister, has praised Kwasi Kwarteng's announcement.

Writing on Twitter, Mr Hands said: "As a former Chief Secretary to the Treasury, I know what an important move this is from [Kwasi] #soundmoney."

Nicola Sturgeon's deputy has attempted to deflect outrage over her declaration that she "detests" Tories by blaming the actions of Margaret Thatcher's government and insisting she was really referring to Conservative policy.

John Swinney, the Deputy First Minister, admitted that her language was "blunt" but argued that "people want to hear it the way it is" and praised her as a "great communicator."

It came as the Scottish Conservatives rounded on Ms Sturgeon for having "insulted hundreds of thousands of Scottish Conservative voters", adding: " This is just a taste of the bitterness and division in our politics if the SNP get their way with another divisive independence referendum next year."

Douglas Ross, leader of the Scottish Tories, said Ms Sturgeon "has the responsibility to set the tone of our political debate" and urged her to retract the comment in her party conference speech later today.

Liz Truss's backbench critics have moved to welcome the announcement by Kwasi Kwarteng, her Chancellor, that the Medium-Term Fiscal Plan will now take place at the end of this month.

Grant Shapps, the former transport secretary, called it "a belated but sensible move given the urgent need to show markets the most transparent view of the UK economy."

Mark Garnier, the former international trade minister who wrote a critical article about the mini-Budget for the House magazine last month, hailed the "very welcome news".

Separately, Andrew Griffith, the Financial Secretary, said: "Market practitioners I've spoken to strongly welcome the significantly earlier date to provide certainty around the Medium-Term Fiscal Plan. Right to act fast on energy when we did and good OBR can now report on this date."

Plummeting global gas prices have slashed the cost of the UK’s energy price cap and may ultimately reduce the monthly subsidy to zero, greatly alleviating the strain on Government borrowing, writes Ambrose Evans-Pritchard.

NatWest Markets estimates that the price guarantee would cost approximately £30bn over the first six months based on current futures contracts, half the £60bn figure assumed by the Treasury and the rating agencies.

The spot price of wholesale gas in Europe is even lower than December futures. If it remains at today’s level, it will fall below the strike price where the state subsidy kicks in. This would eliminate the burden for the Exchequer "entirely".

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Why doomsayer warnings may be trigger-happy

Kwasi Kwarteng rescheduling his Medium-Term Fiscal Plan and the OBR forecast to Halloween was never going to be lost on commentators and his political opponents.

Sarah Olney, the Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesman, accused the Government of a "screeching U-turn" and having "lost control of the economy".

"The Chancellor needs to explain what he’ll do to tackle soaring mortgage costs caused by his botched budget," she said.

"The government’s silence on this mortgage misery is growing more deafening by the day. Without a clear plan to protect homeowners this risks ending up as Kwasi Kwarteng’s Halloween horror show."

Tory MP Kevin Hollinrake, who has been critical of aspects of the early direction of Liz Truss's Government, has welcomed the revised date for Kwasi Kwarteng's fiscal plan.

At the weekend, Mr Hollinrake - who backed Rishi Sunak - wrote: "It’s not so much our level of debt, it’s the rate of increase and the uncertainty about its future levels. Hence the reason why we needed the OBR forecast to accompany the debt-raising mini-Budget."

Reacting to today's news on Twitter minutes, ago, he simply wrote: "Welcome news."

The Chancellor wrote to the chairman of the Treasury select committee:

Upon my arrival in office, I received preliminary analysis from the OBR, but I have since made significant policy announcements including the Growth Plan. It is important that a forecast includes a full and final assessment of the impact of policy measures on the economy and public finances and, as such, it would not be appropriate to publish the initial analysis that the OBR provided.

The new forecast date on October 30 will allow the OBR to capture data releases, such as the recent Quarterly National Accounts and Blue Book revisions.

It will allow for a full forecast process to take place to a standard that satisfies the legal requirements of the Charter for Budget Responsibility enacted by Parliament and that also provides an in-depth assessment of the economy and public finances. And it will provide time for the Medium-Term fiscal Plan to be finalised.

In the meantime, the Prime Minister and I met with the OBR's Budget Responsibility Committee on Friday September 30 to discuss the economic and fiscal outlook, and we will continue to work closely together throughout the forecast process and beyond.

This from Mel Stride, the chairman of the Treasury select committee:

Maybe Liz Truss is a libertarian but a government that spends £60 billion (at least!) to keep your energy bills down is not, writes Tim Stanley.

This massive bailout follows furlough, eat-out-to-help-out and a National Insurance hike to bankroll the NHS. The latter has been reversed but the spending has not, so the Government is living off borrowed money.

That our state is still activist was hammered home by Jacob Rees-Mogg at the Tory party conference, where he noted that while he wishes to strip away nonsensical regulation, the basic stuff around integrity and safety will stay (you would not believe, he said, how many people injure themselves each year falling off ladders).

Jacob is rumoured to support a public information campaign to encourage us to use less energy over the winter – a plan blocked by No 10 on the grounds that people don’t like to be told what to do. I could introduce you to a lady called Miss Whiplash who has made lots of money proving that the opposite is true.

Tim Stanley: This is about efficient use of taxpayer cash

More than 1,000 migrants have crossed the Channel to reach the UK in a single day for the fourth time in seven weeks.

Some 1,065 people made the journey yesterday in 25 boats, according to the Ministry of Defence.

Five Ukrainian cities have been targeted in coordinated revenge attacks a day after Vladimir Putin was urged to retaliate over an explosion on a key Crimea bridge.  

Several loud blasts were heard in the Ukrainian capital around 8.15am local time in what appeared to be coordinated attacks on several cities as 75 missiles rained down across the country.

As well as Kyiv, the cities of Lviv, Ternopil, Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro were also hit by shelling amid calls for revenge from Russian hardliners.

Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, said Russia was trying to wipe his country "off the face of the earth", and confirmed that people had died in the attacks.

Follow the latest on Ukraine throughout the day

Following the disastrous start to Liz Truss’s premiership, and in particular the disastrous and unnecessary mini-Budget, Tory MPs have started to compare the next election to 1997, writes Nick Timothy. And they have good reason to do so.

Poll after poll shows Labour leads of 20 and even 30 percentage points. According to one, more voters under the age of 50 say they would vote Green than Tory. MPs representing constituencies that have always returned Tories worry about their chances of re-election.

Nobody doubts that these are difficult times. There is a war in Europe, and an energy crisis. The world is still suffering the after-effects of lockdowns and Covid restrictions. There is inflation and – after years of super-low interest rates and quantitative easing – tightening monetary policy.

Yet all this makes what the Government has done even more reckless. Remember, there was no reason whatsoever to announce a new Budget on September 23. But drunk on their own ideology, and egged on by their libertarian think-tank cheerleaders, the Prime Minister and Chancellor turned their radical talk into radical action – and in doing so unleashed a terrible financial, economic and political crisis.

Nick Timothy: The Tories must remove or constrain Liz Truss

"Not on your nelly" is how John Cleese would respond to any approach from the BBC, the comedian said as he confirmed a regular new television show with GB News.

Speaking to the Today programme, Mr Cleese claimed he would not get "five minutes into the first show before I'd been cancelled or censored".

"I met one or two of the people concerned [with GB News] and had dinner with them, and I liked them very much. And what they said was: 'People say it's the Right-wing channel - it's a free speech channel.'"

On his own politics, Mr Cleese took aim at a "confusing mess" and railed against the "appalling debate on Brexit, when I thought this country had sunk to the lowest intellectual level I can ever remember".

"I don't think that this country is in a good state at the moment. In fact, I think the last three Tory administrations have been progressively more and more disastrous."

• Nicola Sturgeon will make her keynote speech at the SNP party conference in Aberdeen at around 3.15pm.
• The House of Commons is not sitting - MPs return tomorrow.
• The House of Lords returns, and will be sitting for swearing-in ceremonies.

Barristers have called off their strike after a majority voted to accept the Government's improved pay offer, writes Charles Hymas, our Home Affairs Editor.

Members of the Criminal Bar Association (CBA) voted by a 56.8 per cent to 43.2 per cent majority to accept a £54 million package offered by the new Justice Secretary Brandon Lewis.

Announcing the result on Twitter, the CBA said the industrial action would be suspended from 6pm on Monday evening.

The six-month dispute has led to hundreds of trials being delayed, adding to the backlog of nearly 60,000 crown court cases.

Read the full story here

My brothers and I were extremely close growing up, Sajid Javid writes for the Telegraph today.

The five of us were born within seven years of each other and shared the two-bedroom flat above the family shop in Bristol. We relied on each other and especially on my eldest brother, Tariq. We talked about everything, good and bad: girlfriends, doing badly at exams and who was going to tell dad.

In July 2018, Tariq took his own life. I was home secretary at the time and received the news from my younger brother over the phone. I was stunned. As a family, we simply had not seen it coming. His absence is painful for us all. I often wonder if I could have made a difference and helped him. It is a question I will never know the answer to, and one that always brings feelings of guilt.

The pain we feel in our family is, sadly, far from unique. In 2021 there were more than 5,000 suicides registered in England. Someone dies from suicide in the UK approximately every 90 minutes. I wish I could say the situation is improving, but the trends have broadly been going in the wrong direction for some time.

Today, as we mark World Mental Health Day, we can welcome the progress we’ve made in reducing the stigma. But there is so much more to do, including on suicide prevention.

Sajid Javid: It's too late for my brother - but a better strategy could save many lives

Liz Truss is ready to listen to Conservative critics who oppose proposals to increase benefit payments by less than inflation, Charles Hymas reports. 

The Prime Minister is facing a growing rebellion over benefit cuts amid speculation that she is preparing to cave in to pressure from her Cabinet to increase welfare payments in line with inflation.

A Downing Street source said Ms Truss was "genuinely undecided" but "will be listening to Cabinet and colleagues” on both sides of the argument.

Separately, Greg Hands – a prominent backer of Rishi Sunak – was appointed as the new trade minister in an olive branch to backbench critics who claim she favoured her own supporters in forming her Government.

Nicola Sturgeon said she did not regret saying she "detests" the Tories after being accused of using "really dangerous" language and insulting more than 600,000 Scottish Conservative voters.

The First Minister insisted she was referring to Tory "policies and values" rather than individual politicians or voters after her comments sparked controversy.

Asked whether she would prefer a Tory or Labour government, the First Minister, who will deliver her keynote speech to the SNP conference in Aberdeen at around 3.15pm this afternoon, told the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg: "I detest the Tories and everything they stand for, so it’s not difficult to answer that question.

"Being better than the Tories is not a high bar to cross right now. I think we need to see more of a radical alternative from Labour rather than just a pale imitation."

The Government is still "thinking about" an energy-saving campaign, the Work and Pensions minister suggested this morning.

An information drive to the tune of £15million urging the public to conserve energy, which was backed by Jacob Rees-Mogg, was last week rejected by Downing Street.

Victoria Prentis, appearing on this morning's broadcast round for the Government, was asked by Sky News why ministers decided against the campaign. This was her response:

Well, it’s something that we’re thinking about. But at the moment we don’t think we need to spend a lot of public money on a campaign like that. The reason for that is we are very lucky, particularly when you look at other places in Europe that don’t have the energy security we have, we’re only about 20 per cent reliant on the imports of gas in this country.

Certainly the environmentalist in me says for goodness sake turn the lights off when you leave a room and use energy very carefully… But I don’t think that we need to frighten people and what I’m really worried about is older people and vulnerable people do need to put the heating on and do need to feel able to do that.

So we have to get the balance right with the messaging. If we need to give more messaging later on in the winter then we’ll do that. But at the moment what’s important is we help people to understand there is enough energy.

Benefits "must" rise with inflation to ease the cost-of-living crisis, Sajid Javid said this morning.

The former chancellor, who ran to replace Boris Johnson as Conservative leader, reflected on how Britons were going through "incredibly challenging times".

"We can all see that in our community," he told the Today programme. "So, I personally believe that benefits must stay in line with inflation.

"I hope when - I think the Government is reviewing this decision, there's no decision - but I hope that decision is a clear one to upgrade with inflation."

On whether Kwasi Kwarteng, the Chancellor, should wait as planned to release Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts and analysis based on his plans, Mr Javid added: "I would definitely encourage him to publish it as soon as he can. I think the sooner the better, as far as the markets are concerned."

A major back to work drive for people signed off sick with mental health problems will help Britain’s quest for growth, Number 10 has claimed.

Ministers want to boost the labour force by a further 100,000 people as they strive to cut the benefits bill.

The initiative comes after the Government was alarmed by a sharp rise in economic inactivity in the wake of the Covid pandemic. Downing Street has already announced plans to coax over-50s back into work.

Number 10 has pledged that £122 million will go towards helping put recipients of mental health support in touch with job advisers.

Nick Gutteridge has the full story

Benefits support could be "more targeted" this winter, the Department for Work and Pensions minister suggested this morning.

Speaking to Sky News, Victoria Prentis said: "It’s obviously a really worrying time for people on benefits because they know that inflation is rising and they want us to make this decision as soon as we possibly can so that they have the security of knowing how their benefits will be next year, I get that completely.

"But I can’t possibly make that decision on my own now. We need to get the figures, get everything at our disposal and then we will make that decision as quickly as we can."

And during her appearance on Times Radio, Ms Prentis added: "There are many different ways of making this decision, it may be something more targeted would even be possible. I really can’t decide as much as I’d love to on air now."

Dominic Penna here, the Telegraph's Political Reporter guiding you through another day in Westminster as recess comes to an end.

Liz Truss has this morning been urged to raise benefits in line with inflation amid the cost-of-living crisis amid fears of a backbench rebellion if she pursued real terms cuts.

Baroness Stroud pointed to the likes of Sir Iain Duncan Smith, the former Tory leader and work and pension secretary, who have signalled their support for benefits increasing in line with rising prices.